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The EURUSD may remain confined to its 1000 pip range for the next several days before a break to yet a new low.

The nature of price action since last week’s low strongly suggests that a triangle is unfolding as a 4th wave within a 5 wave decline from 1.6040. Very short term, slightly lower prices in wave d of the triangle would be followed by an e wave that completes the triangle.  If the triangle interpretation is correct then price will remain below 1.3302 and drop to a new low (below 1.2327), perhaps as early as early next week.  I will look to identify completion of the triangle going forward in order to position for the drop below 1.2327.  Until then, the EURUSD is a range trading candidate. 

The USDJPY rally from 90.86 is probably wave A (the first wave in a 3 leg upward correction).  Support last night came in at the topside of a former resistance line.  A drop through there could see a test of support near 96.  A deeper decline is of course possible (the larger trend is still considered down).

The GBPUSD is supported by a long term trendline that dates to 1985 (see purple line at bottom of chart).  I expect a larger bounce off of this line, regardless of the larger trend.  I have presented a potential count from the 2007 top.  Under the above count, a 4th wave is underway now that would likely take the form of a triangle or flat.

The USDCHF is testing a resistance line from late 2005 as well as a shorter term upward sloping resistance line.  These lines combined with overbought and divergent RSI on the weekly and daily should lead to a drop that lasts at least a number of weeks.

Price has come into a support zone defined by former support at 1.13 and 1.1740.  1.13 is the 4th wave of one less degree and should provide strong support. 

The rally from .6005 is either wave a or i in a larger rally.  Wave b or ii is considered complete at .6544.  Wave c or iii is underway now and an initial target is .7515 (100% extension).  .8156/85, the 161.8% extension and the 61.8% of the entire drop from .9856, is a multi-week target.  The AUDUSD is vulnerable to weakness near term below .6830.

Kiwi is in a similar position.  The rally to .6037 is either wave a or i within a larger rally sequence.  Wave b or ii is complete at .5742.  Targets from Fibonacci extensions and retracements are at .6484 and .6990.

Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week.  He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.