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eur/usd Technicals

Wednesday, 03 December 2008 14:11:33 GMT

Euro Technical Outlook

By Jamie Saettele, Senior Currency Strategist

eur/usd Fundamentals

Wednesday, 03 December 2008 23:22:56 GMT

Euro and British Pound Outlooks Hinge Upon ECB, BOE Rate Decision - What Will They Do?

By Terri Belkas, Currency Strategist
Central Bank Interest
Central Bank Calendar
EURJPYGBPAUDCADNZDCHF  

Euro Dollar (EUR)

 ico-clock Current Time - Frankfurt: 11:38 AM | EST: 5:38 AM | GMT: 10:38 AM


SENTIMENT AND POSITIONING
SSI Positioning

EUR/USD Ratio: -1.04
Trading Forecast: Bullish


Full Article
COT Positioning

EUR: Composite COT remains near historically low levels, which is suggestive of a bottom.  However, speculative shorts have gradually declined and positioning is not considered extreme anymore, which decreases confidence in a contrarian play.

 

Implications: neutral


Full Article
FUNDAMENTALS — THIS WEEKS ECONOMIC RELEASES
Most Recent Economic Releases Forecast Previous
EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT) 0.5% -1.0% (R+)
EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT) -1.5% 2.4% (R+)
EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (NOV) 36.5 39.7
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (NOV F) 37.9 37.9
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (NOV F) 36.7 36.7
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (NOV F) 36.2 36.2
USD ISM Manufacturing (NOV) 37.0 38.9
USD ISM Prices Paid (NOV) 32.0 37.0


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Technicals - Support and Resistance for EUR
Support and Resistance Levels Interest Rate Outlook
Key Levels Strength Comments Timeframe Target
R4 1.3292 High 38.2% Fibo of 1.4868 - 1.2329 Benchmark 3.25
R3 1.3193 High 50 Day-SMA
R2 1.3000 Medium Psychological Resistance 1 Week 3.126
R1 1.2721 Medium 20-Day SMA 1 Month 3.524
S1 1.2500 Weak Psychological Support 3 Month 3.824
S2 1.2422 Medium 11/21 Low 6 Month 3.864
S3 1.2367 Weak Bollinger Band Support 9 Month 3.903
S4 1.2329 High 10/28 Low 1 Year 3.925
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FROM THE CENTRAL BANK - ECB
 

Central Bank: European Central Bank
  Current Bias: Dovish
  Current Interest Rate: 3.25%
  Last Change: 11/06/2008 cut 50bp
  Next Meeting: 12/04/2008   More Dates
Latest ECB Interest Rate Outlook

Central Bank Governor: Jean Claude Trichet

Current Voting Members: Lucas D. Papademos
Guy Quaden, Axel A. Weber, Nicholas Garganas, Miguel Frenandez Ordonez, Christian Noyer, John Hurley, Mario Draghi, Yves Mersch, Nout Wellink, Klaus Liebscher, Vitor Manuel Ribeiro Constancio, Marko Kranjec, Erkki Liikanen.
FROM THE CENTRAL BANK - FEDERAL RESERVE

Central Bank: Federal Reserve Bank
  Current Bias: Dovish
  Current Interest Rate: 1.00%
  Last Change: 10/29/2008 cut 50bp
  Next Meeting: 12/16/2008  More Dates
Latest Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook

 **The Dove / Hawk Scale for the Federal Reserve is particularly useful because it lets you know whether recent comments by Fed officials are in line with their general bias or represents a shift in tone

Central Bank Governor: Ben S. Bernanke (Moderate)

Current Voting Members: Timothy F. Geithner (Moderate / Dove), Richard W. Fisher (Hawk), Donald L. Kohn (Moderate), Randall S. Kroszner (Moderate), Frederic S. Mishkin (Dove), Sandra Pianalto (Moderate), Charles I. Plosser (Hawk), Gary H. Stern (Moderate), Kevin M. Warsh (Dove), Elizabeth A. Duke**

**New member of the Board of Governors, 8/5/08

Alternate Voting Members: Charles L. Evans (Moderate), Jeffrey M. Lacker (Hawk), Dennis P. Lockhart (Moderate), Janet L. Yellen (Dove), Christine M. Cumming (Moderate)